Markets Next Week----June 19
Why release of loan growth data in India, GST implementation hiccups, US Federal Reserve's timing of interest rate hike and start of Brexit negotiations is likely to impact stock markets and stocks investors.
Edited Highlights
0:31 What can you expect in the stock markets next week?
2:18 Loan growth figures will be released this week. It has been showing sluggish growth so far
2:24 It will show how the economy is growing. All the money that is lying with the banks, where is it going?
2:30 If banks are only sitting on the money or investing in treasuries, that itself will not help in the growth of the country
2:38 You have been seeing that private investments as a percentahge of GDP has been falling
2:49 It fell to 29.5% of GDP in 2016-17 from 30.9% in 2015-16. It is expected that the fall will continue
3:14 Also. remember that GST returns filing has been postponed by 2 months
3:39 In America, US Federal Reserve has raised interest rates
3:49 This has been in an environment which is disinflationary
3:53 Oil prices are down and consumer prices have been falling, retail sales are sluggish
3:59 Fed should have gone the other way round or kept the rates constant
4:04 Fed has not been data dependent. They have seen the markets doing well and have moved accordingly
4:12 If the markets don't turn out well and I am expecting a good fall this summer in the US, you will see the Federal Reserve getting panicky
4:24 This week the Brexit talks are about begin in Brussels. Theresa May will start the negotiations on behalf of UK
4:31 She is losing authority and there is a good chance that another Brexit hardliner like Boris Johnson may come on the scene
4:37 You may not see them playing out now but in a week's time you are likely to find all these factors come into play
4:46 Investors need to be cautious
4:48 This is a week when they can lighten their positions rather than add fresh ones
